by throughput constraints, weather

In the near term, three possibilities present themselves. First, Kazakhstan can modestly increase export volumes via the Aktau–Baku maritime corridor, feeding into the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. This westward route provides some diversification, though its utility is bounded by throughput constraints, weather variability on the Caspian Sea, and high transport costs. It remains a redundancy mechanism rather than a primary conduit. Second, Kazakhstan can activate provisional rail routes to Georgia or China, and engage in short-term oil swap deals with regional partners such as Uzbekistan. These are operationally complex and financially inefficient, but useful for short-term flexibility. หนังใหม่2025